The top prize of baseball’s free agent pitching market ended his high-profile deliberations Friday when Trevor Bauer agreed to join the Los Angeles Dodgers. The contract is for three years, with opt-outs after the first and second years, and will pay him as much as $102 million if he stays with Los Angeles for its duration, according to ESPN.
Bauer announced his decision via a prerecorded video message posted to his Twitter account, a first among top major league free agents through the years — and a fitting conclusion to one of the most social media-based free agencies in baseball history.
The 2020 National League Cy Young Award winner was considered the top starter available after pitching to a 1.73 ERA over 11 starts in the 60-game season. The right-hander and his agent, Rachel Luba, took an unorthodox approach to his free agency, interacting with fans via social media and addressing speculation head-on.
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On Thursday afternoon, for example, Luba tweeted “Down to 2,” suggesting that two teams remained in contention for Bauer’s services. Though Luba didn’t specify, multiple reports suggested he had agreed to a deal with the New York Mets. Savvy reporters spotted Mets merchandise on Bauer’s website, but it was soon taken down.
By Friday afternoon, the creative deal with the Dodgers was agreed to and the defending World Series champions had added another ace to a rotation loaded with them. Bauer joins Walker Buehler, future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urías and bounce-back candidate David Price on a starting staff that is seven or eight promising arms deep.
The Dodgers are likely to need every one of them to hold off the hard-charging San Diego Padres, who traded for annual Cy Young candidates Blake Snell and Yu Darvish in a furious offseason remodel they hoped would shift the balance of power in the NL West.
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But the Dodgers remain drenched in talent, still featuring most of the roster that propelled them to three of the past four World Series. They still could re-sign third baseman Justin Turner. They already have re-signed reliever Blake Treinen and added Corey Knebel and Tommy Kahnle to the bullpen. With the addition of Bauer, hard-throwing 23-year-old righty Dustin May could find himself in the Dodgers’ deep relief corps, available to start when needed.
The addition of Bauer also brings a big personality to a star-studded clubhouse full of established veterans, such as Kershaw, not known for quite so much flash. The 30-year-old Bauer emerged as an ace for Cleveland in 2018 when he pitched to a 2.21 ERA and struck out more than a batter per inning during an all-star season.
His fame has grown in recent years, as much for being a reliable top-of-the-rotation starter as for his outsize social media presence and willingness to speak his mind on opponents and other topics of discussion around the game. He also is a high-profile student of analytics, an advocate for the use of data in game-planning and an early adopter of spin rate analysis as a way to improve the shape of his pitches.
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According to reports, Bauer will make $40 million in his first season with the Dodgers, which almost certainly will make him the highest-paid player in baseball in 2021. Before the 2020 season, the New York Yankees signed righty Gerrit Cole to a nine-year deal with an average annual value of $36 million — the highest in major league history. The Dodgers’ rotation now includes three of the highest-paid pitchers by AAV in history: Bauer, Kershaw and Price.
Bauer’s deal is particularly creative because if he opts out, it will finish with an average annual value of $40 million, the highest in history. The Dodgers, meanwhile, can claim a competitive balance tax hit of $34 million — the average annual value of a three-year deal for $102 million — for the 2021 season.
Signing Bauer sends the Dodgers flying by the competitive balance tax threshold, which will sit at $210 million for 2021. Even if they do not re-sign Turner, their payroll as calculated for competitive balance tax purposes will be more than $230 million. About $96 million of that will be spent on three pitchers over 30: Bauer, Kershaw and Price.
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The deal comes as a blow to the Mets, who appeared to be front-runners for Bauer for much of the past two days. On Friday night, the Atlanta Braves made things even more challenging in the NL East when they announced the re-signing of outfielder Marcell Ozuna for four years and $65 million.
Ozuna led the National League in homers in the shortened 2020 season, but he did so largely serving as the Braves’ designated hitter — a role that probably will not be available to him this season, with the NL expected to return to having pitchers hit. Ozuna will find room in an outfield mix that includes Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ender Inciarte, with top prospect and elite defender Christian Pache waiting in the wings.
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